The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell from 12-month highs at 249k to 233k last week...
Source: Bloomberg
The non-seasonally-adjusted claims data plunged and is basically unchanged over one and two years...
Source: Bloomberg
...as it appears the Texas storm impact is fading...
Source: Bloomberg
With Michigan and Texas dominating the drop in initial claims...
But, continuing jobless claims rose to 1.875mm Americans - the highest since Nov 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
...and smoothing for the week to week noise - the 4-week moving average of initial claims also reached a new cycle high.
One key thing to note that we warned about...
One thing to note: the unemployment rate of 4.3% was boosted 0.2% by people on temporary layoff which increased by 249,000. This is mostly due to Hurricane Beryl, so expect the unemp rate to slide back to ~4.1% next month.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 2, 2024
Is this bad news or good news?
Stocks seem to think 'good' news.
Imagine what happens next week if CPI is hotter than expected?
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell from 12-month highs at 249k to 233k last week...
Source: Bloomberg
The non-seasonally-adjusted claims data plunged and is basically unchanged over one and two years...
Source: Bloomberg
...as it appears the Texas storm impact is fading...
Source: Bloomberg
With Michigan and Texas dominating the drop in initial claims...
But, continuing jobless claims rose to 1.875mm Americans - the highest since Nov 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
...and smoothing for the week to week noise - the 4-week moving average of initial claims also reached a new cycle high.
One key thing to note that we warned about...
One thing to note: the unemployment rate of 4.3% was boosted 0.2% by people on temporary layoff which increased by 249,000. This is mostly due to Hurricane Beryl, so expect the unemp rate to slide back to ~4.1% next month.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 2, 2024
Is this bad news or good news?
Stocks seem to think 'good' news.
Imagine what happens next week if CPI is hotter than expected?