By
Administration Lie of the Day: “Trump Goaded China into a Bad Position”
https://ift.tt/excTfzV
Treasury Secretary Bessent is a bad liar. Clowns portray it as 5D chess.
Lie of the Day and Hoot of the Day
Bessent: “This was driven by the President’s strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday and this was his strategy all along. And you might even say that he goaded China into a bad position. It wasn’t a hard message. Don’t retaliate and things will turn out well.”
Competing Theories
- Trump concocts ridiculous definition of “reciprocal” to goad China into retaliating. Socks and bonds crashed in response. And China will stop buying agricultural goods from the US. But that’s OK because Trump will again to bail out US farmers, with taxes collected from US citizens via tariffs to bail out the farmers but no one else. This is 5D chess.
- Trump capitulated with a 90-day pause reacting to the plunge in stock and bond markets.
If you are economically dense as a brick of lead, or you are afflicted with a massive and uncurable case of TDS Type II (Trump can do no wrong), then you believe this is all part of a master plan.
Unfortunately close to half the nation is economically as dense as lead or believes in laughable 5D chess theories.
What About Farmers?
In 2018 Trump administration introduced $16 billion (~$19.1 billion in 2023) of new trade aid. In 2019, the Donald Trump administration increased the bailout to $16 billion (~$18.8 billion in 2023).
Two days ago the Wall Street Journal reported Trump Team Will Consider Aid to Farmers, Agriculture Secretary Says
The Trump administration is weighing financial aid to America’s farmers to mitigate any negative effects from President Trump’s tariff program, Brooke Rollins, the U.S. agriculture secretary, said Sunday.
“We have to be prepared that if there is longer-term damage…that we have the funds in working with the senators and working with the appropriators that we can do what we did last time,” Rollins said on CNN. The federal government sent about $23 billion to compensate farmers during Trump’s first term. Trump’s first trade war led to more than $27 billion in losses of agricultural exports, according to USDA research.
Farm Progress
There was $27 billion in damages to farmers under the then pissy (compared to now) tariffs on China.
Now, China will get all the soybeans and corn etc. from Brazil instead of the US.
FarmFutures reports Key Brazil Port bustles as China poised to shift away From U.S.
Trump’s trade war may have crushed global commodity prices, but it’s good news for one of Brazil’s largest ports, which is seeing an uptick in export volumes.
Porto do Açu in Rio de Janeiro state, the country’s No. 1 oil export port, was already investing in extra capacity to help resolve trading bottlenecks in agriculture and minerals. Tariff-induced distortions in global trade are now providing an additional boost, it says.
“When the threats started, demand started to rise,” João Braz, the port’s terminals and logistics director, said in an interview. “We’re in a really good position here.”
How the 5D Plan Works
- Collect taxes from US consumers via massive increases in tariffs. Claim they will fund tax cuts, bring jobs back, and balance the budget, not noting the contradictions.
- Goad China into a response.
- US agricultural exports suffer.
- Pay the farmers tens of billons of dollars with money collected from US consumers via tariffs.
- Explain this was part of the master plan.
Bessent is bragging that over 50 countries want to negotiate. Well la de da. Of course they do, but in practice it’s impossible because of Trump’s idiotic definition of reciprocal.
White House Formula for Reciprocal Tariffs
I discussed the Trump’s idiotic definition of reciprocal on April 3, 2025 in What’s the White House Formula for Calculating the Huge Tariffs?
Essentially it boils down to ((imports – exports) / imports) * 0.50
So reciprocal tariffs have nothing to do with tariffs at all.
Trump assumes any trade deficit with the US is proof of cheating and such countries are taking advantage of the US. But please note that the US is cheating Brazil and Australia because we have a surplus with them.
To get around this, Trump assigned a minimum 10 percent tariff on the world.
Error in the Formula
There are two other variables in the formula but they cancel out. They shouldn’t. The result is that even if one agrees with the concept, reciprocal is about 4 times overstated.
For example, reciprocal for Vietnam should be 12.2% and not 46%.
I have been meaning to do a post on this, but am finding it very difficult to keep up with everything I want to write about.
Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget
On March 12, I commented Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget
We have an annual trade deficit of $918 billion.
Team Trump proposes $918 billion in “reciprocal tariffs” to make the trade deficit go away.
But to balance the budget and eliminate personal income taxes, Trump would need to collect $7 trillion in tariffs on a net trade deficit of $918 billion.
I would love to hear a detailed explanation of exactly how that works.
Are you ready for that miracle? Me too. But wait, there are still more benefits to this amazing deal.
Trumps Claims
- Tariffs will increase revenue enough to balance the budget
- Tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US
- Tariffs will reduce inflation
- Tariffs will increase exports
Conflicting Economic Madness
Points 1 and 2 conflict. Tariffs cannot simultaneously bring back manufacturing and raise enough revenue to balance the budget.
Points 2 and 3 conflict. Since the US is one of the world’s highest cost producer of goods thanks to unions, tariffs will not reduce inflation.
Points 2 and 4 conflict. Since the US is one of the world’s highest cost producer of goods, and other countries will retaliate, tariffs will not increase exports.
Today, I wonder how the flying F we are going to do all that with a 90-day pause but a another bailout of farmers.
Nothing is Fixed
If Trump sticks with his definition of reciprocal or something close, negotiations are not going anywhere.
And contrary to popular myth the US does not hold all the cards.
I explained why earlier today in China Retaliates with 84% Tariffs on the US, Most Trade Will Stop
Supply chains everywhere are disrupted. US farmers will be bailed out, again.
Understanding Rare Earths
At present China produces 60 percent of the world’s rare earths but processes nearly 90 percent, which means that it is importing rare earths from other countries and processing them. This has given China a near monopoly.
According to the United States Geological Survey, China has been supplying 54 percent of the germanium used by the United States, a material used in infrared technology and fiber optics.
The United States has not mined its own gallium, used in semiconductors, since 1987. Japan supplies 26 percent of American imports of gallium, China 21 percent and Germany 19 percent, along with several smaller suppliers.
Antimony (Sb), a critical metalloid, is a key element of the American war machine, essential for communication equipment, night vision goggles, explosives, ammunition, nuclear weapons, submarines, warships, optics, laser sighting and more, according to U.S. Army Major General (retired) James Marks.
China controls nearly 50% of the global antimony supply.
Related Posts
November 21, 2024: China’s Puts Export Curbs on Minerals US Needs for Weapons and Technology
In a warning shot to the Trump administration, China tightens export controls on some dual-use minerals.
December 3, 2024: China Halts Rare Exports Used by US Technology Companies and the Military
This is China’s advance salvo at Trump tariffs. It comes one day after the Biden administration expanded curbs on the sale of advanced American technology to China.
And on April 4, 2025 China retaliated by restricting exports of seven types of rare earths.
China can easily block rare earth exports to the world. If that happens, Trump will panic.
We should not be in this position, but we are.
Conclusion
If after reading this, you still really think this was Trump’s master plan, congratulations for having a brain as dense as lead.
This post originated on MishTalk.Com
Thanks for Tuning In!
Mish
The post Administration Lie of the Day: “Trump Goaded China into a Bad Position” appeared first on Activist Post.
news
via Activist Post https://ift.tt/5NGr4Do
April 17, 2025 at 08:05AM
April 17, 2025 at 08:05AM
via Activist Post https://ift.tt/excTfzV